Diary

EUR/USD sellers still hold a slight edge, but price action is a little sticky to kick start the week

Great piece from our friends at www.forexlive.com

The focus in the pair remains mostly on the near-term chart, after the fall on Friday came about as sellers defended the 100-hour MA (red line) before settling near 1.1800.
Buyers tried to make a play in trading yesterday with a push towards the 200-hour MA (blue line) but the near-term level stalled gains and we saw a retreat back to the figure level once again and that is where price action is consolidating now.
The euro is slightly higher on the day, but it isn’t anything to shout about with the key hourly moving averages only seen closer to 1.1837-48 and that remains the key region that buyers must try and break back above to wrestle back some control.
As for sellers, keeping below 1.1800 is the first step but the region around 1.1785-90 and then the Friday lows around 1.1755-60 will be near-term levels to eye.
In the bigger picture, the supportive region closer to 1.1700-10 remains the key level that sellers must break below to move away from this consolidation range since end-July.
Looking ahead this week, Fed chair Powell’s speech is the key risk event to watch but amid positive equity and month-end flows, it is going to be a tricky period to navigate through for the most part.
The technical levels highlighted above will help with determining the bias in the market but barring any firm break under 1.1700, I would argue that dip buyers are still looking poised to try and make a play for 1.2000 in the pair.
But upon approach of 1.2000, expect profit-taking activity and potential stronger position covering with the possibility of the ECB feeling the need to step in with some verbal intervention to limit the strength in the single currency.

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